Washington Post and FairVote weigh in on Palin splitting the vote
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It’s official: Sarah Palin cost the GOP a House seat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/09/palin-begich-ranked-choice-voting/
(bypass the paywall here)
https://archive.ph/WEencAnd FairVote's take:
https://fairvote.org/press/alaska_cast_vote_record_released/Key quote by Rob Richie:
"You don’t win when you finish last, but the data suggests that Nick Begich is more competitive against Mary Peltola, and would be well-positioned to defeat her in a head-to-head race"
In other words, "oops, our method didn't address vote splitting as we promised."
The good news is that no one can really use this to want to return to choose-one. (since Peltolta would have probably won under that as well.... assuming all three were still on the ballot)
But this should be an embarrassment for FairVote, and their stubborn refusal to acknowledge that Condorcet compliance is better. IRV may be a step in the right direction, but in this case it didn't step far enough to reach the target.
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@rob just as a question, I thought that IRV theoretically satisfies independence of clones, so could this “failure” to elect the “more competitive” candidate be due to a lack of monotonicity (other than failing Condorcet) rather than a lack of addressing vote-splitting?
score-stratified-condorcet [10] cardinal-condorcet [9] ranked-condorcet [8] score [7] approval [6] ranked-bucklin [5] star [4] ranked-irv [3] ranked-borda [2] for-against [1] distribute [0] choose-one [0]
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@cfrank Here's what Parker Friedland says at https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/x9oupk/comment/ins933t/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This was a lot more than just a Condorcet failure.
Condorcet Failure:
Begich beats Peltola by 52.5% and Palin by 61.4%.Favorite Betrayal Failure:
If 2913 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola betrayed Palin by strategically ranking Begich 1st he would have won instead of Peltola.Monotonicity Failure:
If Peltola were able to gain the support of 5825 Palin voters, she would have lost to Begich.Participation Failure:
If 5825 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola had forgotten to vote, Begich would have won.Consistency Failure:
If 5828 Palin>Begich voters, 2915 Begich voters, and 2914 Peltola>Begich voters were removed from the election, Begich would have won and if you counted just those removed votes, Begich also would have won. I wonder if it's possible to get a similar result by subdividing actual counties or voting precincts.
