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    rb-j

    @rb-j

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    Best posts made by rb-j

    • RE: Bottom Two Runoff (Condorcet IRV hybrid)

      @jack-waugh It pretty easy to analyze how IRV and BTR work with a simple 3-candidate cycle that's like Rock-Paper-Scissors. Since this defeat line is circular we can assign whatever label to the candidate that has the most first-choice votes, say "Rock".

      So it's Rock > Scissors > Paper > Rock ...

      Now in the semifinal round, it's either

      1. Rock
      2. Paper
      3. Scissors

      or it's

      1. Rock
      2. Scissors
      3. Paper

      in the ranking of first-choice votes.

      In the IRV case, Paper wins the first scenario and Rock wins the second. It's inconsistent.

      In the BTR case, Scissors and Paper have a runoff, Paper loses and is eliminated, then Rock always beats Scissors in the final round.

      For the 99.9999% of the cases (that either have a Condorcet winner or a simple Rock-Paper-Scissors cycle), the result with BTR is the same as using "straight-ahead" Condorcet and explicitly using plurality as the "completion method" for how to elect a candidate if there is no Condorcet winner. Then it really is a question of which has simpler language? BTR-IRV or simple Condorcet with an explicit completion method for the contingency that there is no Condorcet winner.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: Bottom Two Runoff (Condorcet IRV hybrid)

      @rob said in Bottom Two Runoff (Condorcet IRV hybrid):

      Unlike IRV though, in almost every election, you can give results immediately with precinct sums (which would be pairwise matrix data, i.e. (N*N-1)/2 discrete integer values).

      Two little mistakes. First, you need to either add a pair of parenths or you need to move one. And you're off by a factor of 2.

      N*(N-1)/2 is the number of pairings of N candidates. For each pair, there are 2 numbers.

      So, it's N(N-1) summable tallies that each polling place needs to publish at the end of the election day after the last voter has voted. Now, for the explicit Condorcet-plurality method, you would also need N tallies of first-choice votes for each candidate (to determine the plurality winner). Then it becomes simply N(N-1)+N tallies, which is N^2 tallies for each precinct to print. For 6 candidates, that's about 5 inches of paper tape to publish all of the tallies necessary to be fully precinct summable. For 7 candidates, it would be about 7 inches. Easily photographed with a smart phone.

      For Hare IRV to be precinct-summable, you would have 205 numbers to publish for 5 candidates. Maybe 4 feet of paper tape. 1236 numbers for 6 candidates. Maybe 15 feet of paper tape to post at the poll entranceway.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: Bottom Two Runoff (Condorcet IRV hybrid)

      @rob

      it is about 9000 lines that look like this (there's some extra fluff I removed):

      If you want results to be consistent with the City Clerk's report, you need to use the Kiss pile, the Wright pile, and the Exhausted ballot pile but remove the first four ballots from the Exhausted ballot pile. Those were never counted. You want exactly the same 8976 ballots that the City Clerk counted to at least one of those six candidates (counting Combined Write-In as one of the six).

      posted in Single-winner
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    • RE: FairVote’s odd position against Condorcet-compliant RCV

      I think FairVote's position against Condorcet is along the lines of

      1. "Our current RCV method (Hare) already has momentum that we don't want to damage by conceding it's not the best thing ever since sliced bread."

      2. "We hear enough complaining about how RCV or IRV is too complicated. Condorcet RCV is even more complicated and harder to sell to skeptical voters and policy makers."

      3. "What are they complaining about? IRV and Condorcet elect the same candidate 99.8% of the time. IRV only once did not elect the Condorcet winner. Just once. Likely to not happen again very soon."

      4. "Whenever the Condorcet winner is not elected with IRV it's because the Condorcet candidate did not have enough base support. So the Condorcet candidate deserves to lose."

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      Yes. You are exactly correct, @rob.

      Besides RCV, I am involved in a sorta complex multi-directional "discussion" in Vermont about the nation's most successful third party, about the effect of party crossover in primaries, and of the value of the "open primary" (not to be confused with what California, Washington, or Alaska are doing, where there is no party primary).

      Someone is systemically taking undeserved advantage of someone else. And there is a lotta disingenuity tossed around. It's:

      1. the Center Squeeze of Hare RCV and who, in Vermont, benefits and who loses.

      2. "clone" party crashing another party's primary.

      3. single-member vs. two-member vs. mixed different-sized districts in a legislative body (how well constituents are served by each) and the political effect of switching one to another - who benefits and who loses (and remember, elections are a zero-sum game),

      And I'm drawing maps for ward redistricting in Burlington and we're getting in crunch time. Big decisions being made soon about what map the voters will get to see on the ballot next town-meeting day. And some, not-entirely-transparent reasons for preventing voters from seeing more than one plan.

      So I'm kinda grumpy. I'm sorry.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • Does anyone know if Begich may have been the Condorcet winner?

      Hello folks,

      Nic Tideman emailed me a few days ago, asking me this question.

      The Burlington 2009 Hare RCV failure can happen when there is a close 3-way race.

      I sure as hell do not know unless we can get the records of the individual ballot data for 188,582 ballots. Does anyone know where to get it?

      bestest,

      r b-j

      5ba1750c-611e-4157-a5b5-50245d115010-image.png

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      You can have a race with 3 or more competitive candidates with FPTP. It happens all of the time

      No, it doesn't. It happens sometimes, but given how many more FPTP elections than IRV that's not saying much.

      Sure it does. Nothing about FPTP that stops anyone from having an election with more than 2 candidates. The problem is electing the correct candidate. FPTP sometimes fails to do that. And so does Hare IRV.

      But what good is using a ranked ballot if you ignore the content of the ranked ballot and elect a candidate that does not have majority support.?

      Placebo effect is real and important.

      So you're promoting dispensing placebos instead of medicine that actually has physiological effect?

      Even just feeling like you get to express your true opinion is important, even if the rest of the rankings were entirely thrown away.

      And when the election results are reported and you discover that you were robbed from having your candidate (or your second-choice candidate) elected because the method ignored the second-choice votes of 1/6th of the electorate, despite the promise that it does not, I don't think you'll be "just feeling like you get to express your true [vote]".

      I would also prefer the ability to rank candidates on the ballot with choose-one too, even if it just elects the one with the most first-place votes.

      This is so stupid and irresponsible. And disingenuous.

      Big fucking deal! FPTP can make a similar claim: *Selects a better candidate than choosing the candidate selected by sortition or selected by military support."

      yeah, and if I lived in a country where the winner was chosen by military bureaucracy I would prefer FPTP a hell of a lot more.

      But FPTP ain't good enough, is it, Andy?

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j

    Latest posts made by rb-j

    • Does anyone know if Begich may have been the Condorcet winner?

      Hello folks,

      Nic Tideman emailed me a few days ago, asking me this question.

      The Burlington 2009 Hare RCV failure can happen when there is a close 3-way race.

      I sure as hell do not know unless we can get the records of the individual ballot data for 188,582 ballots. Does anyone know where to get it?

      bestest,

      r b-j

      5ba1750c-611e-4157-a5b5-50245d115010-image.png

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      @rb-j said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      Why not just solve the problem with simple Condorcet? Or with BTR?

      Those would be great. I don't think anyone (of us) is arguing that a Condorcet check doesn't improve a method. It does.

      But it's not productive to rail against IRV.

      Yes, it is. The correct time to rail is right now, with the experience in Vermont and now with the newly experienced difficulties of Maine and NYC with administering RCV elections and getting timely results.

      Now is the time to be learning object lessons while the objects remain visibly presented. We need to learn from failures, rather than ignoring or denying (or forgetting) the failures. That's not how you learn from failure.

      It's better than FPTP.

      So what? FPTP is better than Autocracy. Or sortition. Big fat hairy deeel.

      My approval set of election reforms is { LiterallyAnythingProportional, LiterallyAnythingConcorcet, Approval, STAR, IRV }

      I'm trying to get some reform done and not damage the cause by ignoring, denying, or forgetting failure of the reform we advocate.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @rob said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      @rb-j said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      The point is 1510 voters (out of 8976) found out that, merely by voting for their favorite candidate, they actually caused the election of their least-favorite candidate

      An important question is whether they could have known.

      You collectively learn that with a history of usage and with spoiled elections. I don't wanna wait for another spoiled election to happen in order to start noticing.

      Because after the fact seeing that you could have done something different is a bit different than, at the time of voting, having a clear insincere strategy.

      But that's always the case with spoiled elections. It's after the election is spoiled that voters learn that maybe they shoulda voted their fears instead of their hopes. From the paper:

      When an election is apparently spoiled, many of the voters who voted for the ostensible spoiler suffer voter regret for their choice when they learn of the outcome of the election and they realize that they aided the candidate they preferred least to win by “throwing away their vote” or “wasting their vote” on their favorite candidate rather than voting for the candidate best situated to beat their least-preferred candidate.

      This leads to tactical voting in future elections, where the voting tactic is called “compromising”. This tactical voting is not a nefarious strategy to throw or game an election but is an undesired burden that minor party and independent voters carry, which pressures them to vote for the major party candidate that they dislike the least. They are voting their fears and not their hopes and this has the effect of advantaging the two major parties. This reflects “Duverger’s Law” which states that plurality rule (First-Past-The-Post or FPTP) elections, with the traditional mark-only-one ballots, promote a twoparty political system, and third party or independent candidates will not have a level playing field in such elections. Voters who want to vote for these third party or independent candidates are discouraged from doing so, out of fear of helping elect the major party candidate they dislike the most.

      I know @Andy-Dienes would like to stop discussing Burlington, and I have mixed feelings on that. I do think making it out to be a complete disaster is overstating it. To me it was an example of "the Hare effect" being not applied strongly enough to best deal with that very close election, which was a 1/340 situation.

      What I will continue to do (and am doing now) is testing various minor alterations of Hare (bottom-2 runoff, of course, but also others) against Burlington ballots.

      Why bother? Why not just solve the problem with simple Condorcet? Or with BTR?

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes this is not just about Center-Squeeze. This is more general than that.

      It's about "Vote your hopes, not your fears."

      Center-Squeeze was just a way for RCV to violate that promise.

      But FPTP also does. I just want you to admit that this promise we RCV advocates make, saying why RCV is better than FPTP, was actually violated by Hare RCV in no uncertain terms (because we have possession of the ranked-ballot data and know who the contingency choices were). At least with FPTP we have to speculate that the election was spoiled. Ain't no speculation with RCV and public records.

      posted in Single-winner
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    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      @rb-j said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      The fact that there always exists a simple majority between two candidates (unless they tie)

      not if voters truncate their rankings

      Which is why I advocate that ballot access law be strong enough so that there aren't more than 5 or 6 candidates who are on the ballot. But if there are, say, a dozen candidates one the ballot, there should be at least 5 or 6 ranking levels. And if there are more ranking levels, then precincts should algorithmically choose the 5 or 6 leading candidates in that precinct, and publish pairwise defeats for the pairings of the top 5 or 6. Precinct summability does not mean that the paper tape printout of summable tallies is 10 feet long. It has to be practical, feasible. 20 or 30 summable tallies is about that practical limit.

      And a good and fair social choice system should not incentize you from expressing your preference in any manner other than sincere

      Agreed, and IRV is one of the very best methods at incentivizing sincere rankings.

      But it's not the best, is it? And it's not about the ranked ballots but are about the rules of the game, which can be fairly and safely examined. And courageously examined.

      It has other flaws yes, but strategic manipulability is not really one of them.

      The point is 1510 voters (out of 8976) found out that, merely by voting for their favorite candidate, they actually caused the election of their least-favorite candidate. Just like Nader voters that got W elected, that incentivizes these voters to vote for the major party candidate that is best situated to beat the candidate that they loathe.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @rob said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      @rb-j said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      As far as I understand, this is expressed with the maxim "One person, one vote".

      Yeah that is a very vague saying. I get the concept, but many people interpret it very literally, such as saying that ranking or approving doesn't qualify simply because they are doing more than checking a single box.

      I understand that, and it's essentially where we RCV advocates disagree with detractors who insist on FPTP.

      What they don't want to understand is the notion of the Single-Transferable Vote. It's one vote, but it gets shifted around in such a manner that best benefits the political interest of the enfranchised person who is voting. They get only one vote.

      The difference between the Hare advocates and the Condorcet folks are that the former says that some of us cannot transfer our vote from our higher-ranked candidate, that was just eliminated, to the contingency candidate of our choosing as expressed on our ballots. The Condorcet advocates say we can. When you promote your product saying *"You can vote for the candidate you really want and need not choose between the lesser of evils. If your favorite candidate cannot win election, then your vote counts for your second choice." Howard Dean (whom I was fortunate enough to introduce to a big crowd in NH in 2004) made that claim ignorant of the fact that it's demonstrated false in the experience of his very own home town.

      When you make that claim (which is Property 4 in this), you should mean it.

      In order to allow voters to vote their hopes instead of their fears, the election should not punish (or disincentivize) voters from voting their hopes. It does that by actually preventing the spoiler effect (an oft advertized feature of RCV). And it does that by making sure that the majority candidate is elected and not blocked from election because of the spoiler.

      I've used the example of people voting for a number (say an office temperature or the amount of monthly dues) and choosing the median, which is as close to everyone having "equal voting power" as anything I can imagine.

      The median helps block the effect of exaggeration of one's preference in order to unfairly increase the effect of one's expression of their preference.

      But so does One-person-one-vote. Unlike Score Voting or Borda RCV, it doesn't matter if I prefer A enthusiastically and you prefer B only tepidly, your vote for B should count just as much as my vote for A.

      The median thing is a mathematical tool to prevent outliers from changing the measure of how the middle of the spectrum affects a composite measured property (like median income vs. mean) or in social choice.

      I tend to think Condorcet systems most closely approach that in elections with human candidates and a single winner.

      And that cannot be satisfied outside of Majority Rule: If a simple majority of voters agree that Candidate A is a better choice for office than Candidate B, then Candidate B is not elected.

      I've never been big on the use of the word "majority" when there are more than two candidates. Especially if combined with the word "support", which seems so artificially binary.

      Between two candidates there is an unambiguous notion of majority support if we agree that every voter's expression of support (that's what a vote is) is counted equally.

      The fact that there always exists a simple majority between two candidates (unless they tie) is misconstrued by naive (or disingenuous) RCV advocates to claim that RCV is "guaranteed to elect the majority-supported candidate" because it boils the election down to two candidates in the final round, in which there is always a simple majority.

      Of course that Hare final-round pair of candidates is not the only way to pair two candidates and examine which one is supported more than the other. Everyone, other than the Condorcet loser, is a "majority candidate".

      If I vote for someone over another person, that is no indication that I "like" them in any everyday sense of the word, only that I prefer them over someone else.

      That's correct. And that preference of yours counts just as much as my preference for the "someone else". Doesn't matter how much more I prefer my candidate vs. how much you prefer yours. Our votes should count equally.

      I agree that Condorcet is best (it seems to meet my idea of "game theoretically stable," which is important to me but not necessarily a priority for others), but I just don't like using the concept of "majority."

      Simple majority and Absolute majority have dictionary definitions that are reasonably concise.

      And again, I refer back to the "voting for a number" thing.... my vote might pull the vote from 69.2 degrees to 69.3 degrees, when I preferred 72 degrees.

      And a good and fair social choice system should not incentize you from expressing your preference in any manner other than sincere. Express your sincere preference and rely on the method to respect your preference, as a person holding equal rights and equal franchise, equally as much as any other person's preference.

      That can be perfectly fair and equitable, but the word "majority" doesn't in any way apply.

      That's right. And if we were voting for an alternative that is an ordered quantity, Score Voting using median score rather than plurality score, seems very fair and equitable to me. Maybe use this for a public vote on the city's budget cap or tax-base percentile. But not people or maps or discrete alternative plans that are not an ordered quantity. Then the only fair thing is valuing each voter's vote equally.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      Yes. You are exactly correct, @rob.

      Besides RCV, I am involved in a sorta complex multi-directional "discussion" in Vermont about the nation's most successful third party, about the effect of party crossover in primaries, and of the value of the "open primary" (not to be confused with what California, Washington, or Alaska are doing, where there is no party primary).

      Someone is systemically taking undeserved advantage of someone else. And there is a lotta disingenuity tossed around. It's:

      1. the Center Squeeze of Hare RCV and who, in Vermont, benefits and who loses.

      2. "clone" party crashing another party's primary.

      3. single-member vs. two-member vs. mixed different-sized districts in a legislative body (how well constituents are served by each) and the political effect of switching one to another - who benefits and who loses (and remember, elections are a zero-sum game),

      And I'm drawing maps for ward redistricting in Burlington and we're getting in crunch time. Big decisions being made soon about what map the voters will get to see on the ballot next town-meeting day. And some, not-entirely-transparent reasons for preventing voters from seeing more than one plan.

      So I'm kinda grumpy. I'm sorry.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      You can have a race with 3 or more competitive candidates with FPTP. It happens all of the time

      No, it doesn't. It happens sometimes, but given how many more FPTP elections than IRV that's not saying much.

      Sure it does. Nothing about FPTP that stops anyone from having an election with more than 2 candidates. The problem is electing the correct candidate. FPTP sometimes fails to do that. And so does Hare IRV.

      But what good is using a ranked ballot if you ignore the content of the ranked ballot and elect a candidate that does not have majority support.?

      Placebo effect is real and important.

      So you're promoting dispensing placebos instead of medicine that actually has physiological effect?

      Even just feeling like you get to express your true opinion is important, even if the rest of the rankings were entirely thrown away.

      And when the election results are reported and you discover that you were robbed from having your candidate (or your second-choice candidate) elected because the method ignored the second-choice votes of 1/6th of the electorate, despite the promise that it does not, I don't think you'll be "just feeling like you get to express your true [vote]".

      I would also prefer the ability to rank candidates on the ballot with choose-one too, even if it just elects the one with the most first-place votes.

      This is so stupid and irresponsible. And disingenuous.

      Big fucking deal! FPTP can make a similar claim: *Selects a better candidate than choosing the candidate selected by sortition or selected by military support."

      yeah, and if I lived in a country where the winner was chosen by military bureaucracy I would prefer FPTP a hell of a lot more.

      But FPTP ain't good enough, is it, Andy?

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @andy-dienes said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      IRV, even in Burlington

      allowed there to be a race with 3 competitive candidates (any one of whom easily could have won with small changes in public opinion). In FPTP this is almost unheard of

      That's bullshit. You can have a race with 3 or more competitive candidates with FPTP. It happens all of the time. This issue is preventing the election of a candidate without majority support of the electorate. FPTP often fails to do that. And IRV failed to do that "even in Burlington".

      Provided a ballot format which allowed voters to express richer preference than a single name

      Fine, no one is disputing the value of the ranked ballot (well, opponents of RCV do, like these guys). But what good is using a ranked ballot if you ignore the content of the ranked ballot and elect a candidate that does not have majority support.?

      Selected a better winner than choosing the candidate with the most first-place votes would have

      Big fucking deal! FPTP can make a similar claim: *Selects a better candidate than choosing the candidate selected by sortition or selected by military support."

      IRV can and does ignore the express preferences that voters put on their ranked ballots and can and does elect the non-majoritarian candidate as a result. This means that the fewer voters that saw their candidate elected had cast votes that had more juice, more power, than the larger number of voters that had cast votes for the majority candidate.

      Now, can we please stop bringing up Burlington.

      Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

      And you cannot get past the problem of lack of process transparency because Hare IRV is not precinct summable. And also, because Hare is not precinct summable, you cannot get past the problem of election night results for statewide or large city betraying the label Instant Runoff Voting.

      And do you want the Write-In option to be meaningful? What if, for a statewide race (like what happened with Lisa Murkowsky in 2010 FPTP), that Combined Write-In actually wins an RCV election? How are you gonna deal with that?

      With Hare it's a terrible fucking mess. With Condorcet, all you need to do is split each precinct into two sub-precincts, separate the Murkowsky write-ins from the others, tabulate both sets of ballots separately with the tabulator machines (clearing the counters in between) and then ADD the results for each pairing, except for the Write-In category). You can do this decentralized on the same evening of the election.

      posted in Single-winner
      rb-j
      rb-j
    • RE: New method (I think?): Hare-squared

      @rob said in New method (I think?): Hare-squared:

      I don't know what you consider "making voters equal in power."

      As far as I understand, this is expressed with the maxim "One person, one vote". And that cannot be satisfied outside of Majority Rule: If a simple majority of voters agree that Candidate A is a better choice for office than Candidate B, then Candidate B is not elected.

      But I think it is an important one for providing insight into IRV, including @sass and @rb-j 's arguments against IRV (which I think are WAY too strong, and are blocking progress)

      When a reform fails to do precisely what it purports to do, the thing to do is reform the reform. Reforming reform does not block progress, it diverts the direction of the progress from a direction that is not entirely progressive to another that is.

      Remember RCV proponents promote RCV saying that RCV:

      1. "guarantees the majority-supported candidate is elected."
      2. "eliminates the spoiler effect."
      3. removes the burden of tactical voting from voters, freeing them to "Vote their hopes not their fears" or "Vote for who they really like rather than the lesser of evils".

      When a reform utterly fails to perform at the very core of what the reform it purports to be, ignoring or denying that failure is not conducive to the progress it purports to be.

      The other important issue that is becoming even more important as statewide RCV begins to take root is the component of process transparency that we call "Precinct Summability".

      For a literal "Executive Summary", read this letter I sent last spring to the governor of Vermont. (I was not successful, BTW.)

      as well as FairVote's arguments against Condorcet (which is very flawed, but I have found challenging to explain why in a way they can't wriggle away from).

      I would be interested in hearing what they say to you to "wriggle away". I've had multiple email conversations with Rob Richie about this and all he does and can do is deny that the facts are a problem (with nothing to support the reasoning for his denial) and dismisses the necessity to adjust course. It's simple denial and relying on their established position an momentum. He cannot wriggle away from the facts. He can only ignore and deny or poo-poo the facts.

      posted in Single-winner
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